Hearthstone Mathematics #2 !

Whats your best shot to win? Best mathematical approach wins . The correct percentage is hard , but you can answer out of instinct too! ( Few notes , all minions are frozen , Leper aren’t silenced , effect is there ) Of course you can’t pass , next turn you are dead for sure , so you got one chance ! Work your minds now fellas , and give me a nice answer!
Hearthstone Mathematics Difficulty 5/5

hearthstone mathematics #2 photoCards we have in our hand: Pre-nerf

[Leeroy Jenkins] which costs 4 mana, and a [Lightning Bolt].

You can check the solution right here!!