Hearthstone Mathematics #4!

This exercise is about to find the best chance of winning. There is no 100% solution like puzzles nor you control the RNG like Scenarios. You have to find the solution based on pure mathematics ( or Instinct ) to get the lethal! So what’s the best play and whats the exact percentage of winning? Choose wisely! ( Hint: Piloted Shredder drops 101 minions 😛 ) Difficulty 3.5/5

From left to right we have these cards in our hand:
[Flame Juggler] x2, [Moat Lurker]
The card in our board are: [Target Dummy] x2 and one [Piloted Shredder]
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You can also check the solution right here!