The first play is playing Animal Companion into Huffer which is 33% and Flame juggler to hit face which is 50%
1/3*1/2=1/6 = 16.6666% to win
Second Play is really tricky , The first odd of course is Tracking into Leeroy which is 15%. After that there is a chance to go Tracking to Tracking to Leeroy and here comes the hard part. So i will post two ways for it. Lets say that A=Chance of Winning with Leeroy on the first try = 15% and B = Chance of winning with Leeroy on second try
B= 3/20*3/17 ( 3/17 cause tracking drops 3 cards ) so thats 2 which is 2.64% , if you add them you get 17.6% which unfortunately is not correct.The propabilities are NOT intependant. You got to remove the chance of having tracking + leeroy ON the first hand cause then its impossible to win if you pick tracking. That chance is 3/20*2/19*3/17 = 0.27% if you remove that you get a chance around 17.368% .
The easyest Method is to Calculate the Chance of winning with Leeroy on the first try , and To win with Tracking + Tracking to leeroy WITHOUT having Tracking and leeroy on the first tracking ( cause then you would simply pick leeroy and not tracking. That chance is 3/20*17/19*3/17 = 2.368% , if you add that to the chance of getting leeroy on the first Tracking ( 3/20 = 15% ) you get 15% + 2.368% = 17.368%. The propabilities are Intependent and there are no issues simply adding them 🙂
So after all Tracking is the best play! 😀